Sensex rises 171 points- Nifty ends above 7800; F&O expiry eyed

Equity benchmarks fell 1 percent in morning trade on weakness in Asian peers after weak Chinese data, but positive European cues helped Indian equities rebound sharply in afternoon trade.

The market managed to see recovery in later part of the session on Wednesday ahead of expiry of Nifty September derivative contracts. Equity benchmarks fell 1 percent in morning trade on weakness in Asian peers after weak Chinese data, but positive European cues helped Indian equities rebound sharply. The 30-share BSE Sensex rose 171.15 points or 0.67 percent to 25822.99 and the 50-share NSE Nifty climbed 33.95 points or 0.43 percent to 7845.95. The broader markets too gained in line with benchmarks; the BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices advanced 0.5 percent and 0.7 percent, respectively. Experts said they expect rangebound trade to continue in near term but they feel there are lot of opportunities for investment post recent correction. The Nifty is expected to remain in tight range of 7500 to 8100, Mayuresh Joshi of Angel Broking said. Delay in corporate earnings recovery could drive market towards the lower end, he added. According to Nandan Chakraborty of Axis Capital, in the next one year some of the positives for Indian economy could be in terms of cut in interest rates and government’s focus on infrastructure capex leading to boost in corporate capex. However, India in isolation cannot continue to outperform if the world is not doing well, and currently the world is not doing that well, Chakraborty said. Globally it was a mixed day. Key indices in Asia finished lower as China's September flash manufacturing PMI fell to a 6.5-year low of 47. Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng dropped 2 percent each. However, European markets managed to shrug off the Chinese growth concerns with the France's CAC, Germany's DAX and Britain's FTSE gaining around 0.7-1.4 percent (at 16 hours IST). Meanwhile, Prime Minister Narendra Modi kicked off his two nations' tour in Ireland today. He will meet Irish counterpart Enda Kenny and also attend an Indian community event before departing for New York. Banking, technology and select oil stocks supported the market in later part of trading session.

          HDFC Bank, Lupin, Mahindra & Mahindra and Vedanta were top gainers in trade today, up 2-3 percent followed by Infosys and ICICI Bank with more than 1 percent upside. ITC rallied 1.7 percent despite UP Government has raised VAT on tobacco & cigarette to 40 percent from 25 percent. Larsen & Toubro also recovered, closing up 0.8 percent. The stock lost more than 2 percent in morning trade after rating agency ICRA downgraded term loans worth Rs 1,500 crore of toll road SPVs to default. However, state-run power equipment maker BHEL lost 1.2 percent after rating agency CRISIL has lowered outlook on the company due to power sector overhangs. 

          Tata Motors and Bharti Airtel were other major losers, down around 1.5 percent. In the broader space, IDBI Bank rallied 9 percent. MD and CEO Kishor Kharat said while he hasn't heard any news of an Axis Bank like structure for IDBI Bank, but it would certainly be a welcome move if it happens. Dishman Pharma jumped 16 percent close more than seven-year high of Rs 306.95 after the company announced a tie-up that makes them exclusive supplier of the API for Janssen's tuberculosis drug - Sirturo. Visa Steel was locked at 20 percent upper circuit as the company confirmed that lenders have decided to invoke strategic debt restructuring in the joint lenders forum meet. Tide Water Oil rose 3.5 percent on the back of surprise open offer announcement by minority shareholders. Standard Greases & Specialities has tied up with Janus Consolidated Finance, Alpha TC Holdings and Tata Capital Growth Fund to acquire 26 percent stake in Tide Water.

Shekhar's Tech-22.09.15-Intra Day Level

Buy Abv. 7968 With SL 7949 For Targets 8007 8022

Sell Below 7949 With SL 7967 For Targets (7909) (7894)

As rules- 1. Take any entry/exit by filttering of 2-2.5 points even for reverse...

                      Check accuracies in a month atleast.

2. At buy targets...can sell with stop loss of +15 points from 2nd target

    Same as reverse ,

    At sell targets...can buy with stop loss of -15 points from 2ndt target

Performance- From 12h July to till now earned 

total 1211 points

For Live updates-  https://www.facebook.com/groups/481977645293227/

my level traders can book 50% by 25 points...in short call by rule 2.
Extra call-My level was -
Buy nf 7976-6with sar 7943...

Got total points is 45

RBI may cut policy rate by 25 bps on Sep 29: Report

The data on Wholesale Price Index (negative 4.9 percent) and Consumer Price Index (3.66 percent) continue to reflect a benign inflationary environment, said ratings and research firm Ind-Ra

With inflation figures continuing to reflect benign environment, the RBI is likely to go for a 25 basis points rate cut while announcing its bimonthly monetary policy on September 29, a report said on Monday. 

The data on Wholesale Price Index (negative 4.9 percent) and Consumer Price Index (3.66 percent) continue to reflect a benign inflationary environment, said ratings and research firm Ind-Ra. While it expects the impact of base effect to reflect in higher inflation numbers for next month, they should remain within the Reserve Bank's guided path of CPI of 6 per cent by the year end.

"With real interest rates remaining high and a gradual growth trajectory, Ind-Ra expects the regulator to cut the policy rates by 25 bps (25 basis points or 0.25 per cent) to 7 per cent during this month," it said. However, the agency said that uncertainty created by US Federal Reserve's status quo may limit aggressive rate cuts and offer some protection against volatility. Further, it expects rupee to appreciate during the week as a run up to the monetary policy announcement on September 29.

"Key drivers would remain the expectations of a relaxation in foreign institutional investor limits for G-Secs, generalised risk-on in the short term and expectations of a rate cut in the policy," it added. But it said the currency remains vulnerable to a global risk-off situation, global growth and financial market concerns. "Ind-Ra remains cautious on the medium-term outlook of the rupee." Post the US Fed policy announcement last week, it said the focus will now shift to the impact of a slowing global economy and in respect of India, the ability of the domestic markets to pick up the slack.

"With recent trade data re-emphasising the limitations of exports as a growth engine, the focus would be on consumption story along with government's spending on infrastructure." Ind-Ra expects investments by the private corporate sector to remain tepid for the next 12-18 months, given the stretched balance sheets and low capacity utilisation levels, it added. Further Ind-Ra said that it expects improvements in the GDP growth to be gradual during FY16 and FY17.

Shekhar's Tech-21.09.15-Intra Day Level

Buy Abv. 8009 With SL 7989 For Targets 8048 8063

Sell Below 7989 With SL 8008 For Targets (7949) (7934)

As rules- 1. Take any entry/exit by filttering of 2-2.5 points even for reverse...

                      Check accuracies in a month atleast.

2. At buy targets...can sell with stop loss of +15 points from 2nd target

    Same as reverse ,

    At sell targets...can buy with stop loss of -15 points from 2ndt target

Performance- From 12h July to till now earned 

total 1166 points

Extra calls if levels doesn't work under price
When more gap up/down
can buy nf 7917-10 with sar 7878 ( add more near sar-sl)

7915 to 7940 booked,,,,, sold near 7965 booked 7940..............

By both side got more than 45 points...

For Live updates-  https://www.facebook.com/groups/481977645293227/

Global financial markets Shaky China & uneasy : US Fed worries about ripple effects

By Nelson D Schwartz 

Lots of buzz concerning the impact of higher interest rates in the United States. A major trading partner creating shock waves in the global economy. Stock market volatility spreading around the world. 


Sound familiar? It certainly does to Federal Reserve policymakers, who hesitated this week about lifting their key interest rate lever from close to zero because of worries about the ripple effects of a shaky Chinese economy and uneasy global financial markets. What they remember is a situation that played out more than 20 years ago, in 1994 and early 1995. 

Th country in question then was Mexico, as rising rates in the United States put pressure on an emerging market economy already suffering from a weakening currency and too much debt. 

Ultimately, Mexico had to be bailed out by the United States and the International Monetary Fund. And something like the so-called Tequila Crisis and other episodes of global economic turmoil in the 1990s are exactly what officials hope to avoid — or at least lessen — 

When Fed policymakers do eventually decide to move, they should emphasize that it is not the beginning of a relentless new tightening phase, said Robert E. Rubin, President Bill Clinton's Treasury secretary from 1995-99. 

At the time of the initial rate increase, he said, Fed officials should make clear that future increases will only come if the data suggests the economy continues to strengthen and that higher interest rates and a tighter monetary policy are required to head off .

At the time of the initial rate increase, he said, Fed officials should make clear that future increases will only come if the data suggests the economy continues to strengthen and that higher interest rates and a tighter monetary policy are required to head off the clear risk of inflation. 

RBI grants in-principle nod to 10 small banks' applicants

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) today granted an in-principle nod to 10 applicants for small finance banks. According to a statement by the central bank, the in-principle approval granted will be valid for 18 months to enable the applicants to comply with the requirements under the Guidelines and fulfil other conditions as may be stipulated by the RBI. "On being satisfied that the applicants have complied with the requisite conditions laid down by it as part of in-principle approval, the RBI would consider granting them a licence for commencement of banking business under Section 22(1) of the Banking Regulation Act, 1949," adds the statement. According to the in-principle nod given by the central bank, the applicants cannot undertake any banking business until a regular licence is issued. A small finance bank, according to RBI, should have 75 percent of its adjusted net bank credit to be extended to priority sector and it should have atleast 25 branches in unbanked rural areas. A total of 72 players had applied for the small finance bank licence and three different committees contributed to the final decision. Here are the names of selected applicants: 

1. Au Financiers (India) Limited, Jaipur 2. Capital Local Area Bank Limited, Jalandhar 3. Disha Microfin Private Limited, Ahmedabad 4. Equitas Holdings P Limited, Chennai 5. ESAF Microfinance and Investments Private Limited, Chennai 6. Janalakshmi Financial Services Private Limited, Bengaluru 7. RGVN (North East) Microfinance Limited, Guwahati 8. Suryoday Micro Finance Private Limited, Navi Mumbai 9. Ujjivan Financial Services Private Limited, Bengaluru 10.Utkarsh Micro Finance Private Limited, Varanasi. Samit Ghosh, MD and CEO, Ujjivan Financial Services Private Limited, says the first obstacle for the company will be to convert its ownership structure from foreign to domestic. The micro-finance company has Rs 3300 crore assets under management (AUM) and caters to 24 states and union Territories. BS Radhakrishnan of Janalakshmi FInancial Services says the RBI's intention behind granting approvals to both small banks and payment banks (in the recent past) is to create competition so that customers can get a variety of choices. 

"The noteworthy part, though, he adds is that payment banks can only accept deposits, unlike us who can lend too. So the ability of small banks to look at both sides of the balancesheet will help the company," he explains. Guidelines to be met by small finance banks: - 75 percent of Adjusted Net Bank Credit to be extended to priority sector - 50 percent of loan portfolio to constitute loans & advances of upto Rs 25 lakh - 25 branches must be in unbanked rural areas - Maximum loan size & investment limit to single obligor restricted to 10 percent of capital funds - Maximum loan size & investment limit to a group restricted to 10 percent of capital funds - Require minimum paid up equity capital of Rs 100 crore. - Promoter stake must be at 40 percent in first 5 years - Promoter stake to be brought down to 30 percent within 10 yrs, 26 percent  in 12 years - Listing mandatory within 3 years of reaching Rs. 500 crore net worth - Maximum foreign shareholding of 74 percent allowed 

Shekhar's Tech-15.09.15-Intra Day Level

Nifty Intraday/Day trading levels-

Buy Abv. 7853 With SL 7834 For Targets (7892)-(7807)

Sell Below 7834 With SL 7852 For Targets (7795)-(7780)

As rules- 1. Take any entry/exit by filttering of 2-2.5 points even for reverse...

                      Check accuracies in a month atleast.

2. At buy targets...can sell with stop loss of +15 points from 2nd target

    Same as reverse ,

    At sell targets...can buy with stop loss of -15 points from 2ndt target

Performance- From 12h July to till now earned 

total 1121 points

Follow ups-
Live follow ups on- https://www.facebook.com/groups/481977645293227/