NEW DELHI: The S&P BSE Sensex closed the month of October on a positive note, up nearly 2 per cent, but the first week of November is likely to see a lot of volatility as market participants track the next batch of September quarter results as well as the outcome of the assembly elections in Bihar.
The benchmark indices ended the month on a positive note, but for the week ended October 30, Sensex and Nifty50 closed with losses of 3 per cent and 2.7 per cent, respectively.
The forthcoming week is likely to witness a lot of volatility ahead of the exit poll results, which will start coming out after November 5.
Market experts say Nifty50 is looking bearish on technical charts and could well slip below its crucial psychological support level of 8,000 and then even 7,900. "Nifty50 has moved into profit-taking mode after rising 10 per cent since last month. The levels of 8,100 and 8,000 are crucial from a medium-term perspective," says Jimeet Modi, CEO, SAMCO securities.
"The market may go into sideways consolidation with a negative bias for want of fresh triggers. It will most likely wait for the Bihar election outcome before any substantial move," he said.
Shares of automobile companies will remain in focus as they will release their sales data for October. The quarterly numbers of largecap companies like Tech Mahindra, Tata Steel, Cipla, Tata Motor, SBI, PNB, M&M, ONGC and BHEL, among others, will also dictate market trend in the near term.
The recent bout of weakness in the market was in tandem with profit booking witnessed across emerging markets, say experts. "While news flow from global economies will continue to influence market sentiments, the Indian stock market is likely to remain volatile in the short term," said Hitesh Agarwal, Head of Research, Reliance Securities.
"This will largely be owing to the fact that Bihar polling will conclude next week on November 5, and the results will be announced on November 8 (Sunday). But that will be preceded by exit poll results," he said.
Agarwal is of the view that earnings announcement will gather pace next week ahead of the Diwali festivities. Also, auto sales numbers will keep the sector in focus.
Nifty50 November futures saw a closing at 8,094.70 with a weekly loss of 209.45 points.
"Technically, Nifty50 future on the daily chart is looking bearish. Nifty future has peaked as it could not cross its important resistance level of 8,400 which is also a downward sloping trend line of a falling channel," says Vivek Gupta, CMT - Director Research, CapitalVia Global Research Limited.
"In the near future, it may test its support level at 7,980, which is 50 per cent retracement level of the recent rise. If it breaches this level, it may correct till 7,900 level, while on the upside the immediate resistance will be at 8,300 level," he said.
The benchmark indices ended the month on a positive note, but for the week ended October 30, Sensex and Nifty50 closed with losses of 3 per cent and 2.7 per cent, respectively.
The forthcoming week is likely to witness a lot of volatility ahead of the exit poll results, which will start coming out after November 5.
Market experts say Nifty50 is looking bearish on technical charts and could well slip below its crucial psychological support level of 8,000 and then even 7,900. "Nifty50 has moved into profit-taking mode after rising 10 per cent since last month. The levels of 8,100 and 8,000 are crucial from a medium-term perspective," says Jimeet Modi, CEO, SAMCO securities.
"The market may go into sideways consolidation with a negative bias for want of fresh triggers. It will most likely wait for the Bihar election outcome before any substantial move," he said.
Shares of automobile companies will remain in focus as they will release their sales data for October. The quarterly numbers of largecap companies like Tech Mahindra, Tata Steel, Cipla, Tata Motor, SBI, PNB, M&M, ONGC and BHEL, among others, will also dictate market trend in the near term.
The recent bout of weakness in the market was in tandem with profit booking witnessed across emerging markets, say experts. "While news flow from global economies will continue to influence market sentiments, the Indian stock market is likely to remain volatile in the short term," said Hitesh Agarwal, Head of Research, Reliance Securities.
"This will largely be owing to the fact that Bihar polling will conclude next week on November 5, and the results will be announced on November 8 (Sunday). But that will be preceded by exit poll results," he said.
Agarwal is of the view that earnings announcement will gather pace next week ahead of the Diwali festivities. Also, auto sales numbers will keep the sector in focus.
Nifty50 November futures saw a closing at 8,094.70 with a weekly loss of 209.45 points.
"Technically, Nifty50 future on the daily chart is looking bearish. Nifty future has peaked as it could not cross its important resistance level of 8,400 which is also a downward sloping trend line of a falling channel," says Vivek Gupta, CMT - Director Research, CapitalVia Global Research Limited.
"In the near future, it may test its support level at 7,980, which is 50 per cent retracement level of the recent rise. If it breaches this level, it may correct till 7,900 level, while on the upside the immediate resistance will be at 8,300 level," he said.
